The playoffs are kicking off tonight, and the talking heads have had their say. Few are picking the Sens to really challenge the Pens in the first round. Almost every prognosticator, regardless of the team they chose say this series ends in 6 games. Most, including the formerly bias Ian Mendes, are saying that Ottawa gives the Pens a run, but Pittsburgh comes out on top. But, there's also the belief that if Ottawa plays this series right, they can move on to the second round. Here's how they do it:
The primary focus of every "expert" is Sidney Crosby. Crosby, they say, is an immovable object; an unstoppable force. And against most of the league, that's true. But, here's Crosby's stat line against the Sens this year:
vs. Ottawa 4 0 3 3 -3 2 12 0.0 0 2 0 0 0 0 21:19 28:25
That's 3 assists, with 12 shots on goal over 4 games averaging 21:19 on ice.
That's an impressive stat line if you're Ottawa, but what does it mean? Well, it means taking Crosby out of the equation is a simple formula that's hard to succeed at. First, you need to make him play defensively. That means matching him up against your top line. Second, you have to limit his shooting avenues. That means keeping him to the outside and making sure you have back pressure from your forwards. You can't let the 80 year old Bill Guerin beat you up the ice if you're Jason Spezza, or Daniel Alfredsson, or whoever gets thrown onto the other wing. Simple enough. Keep Sid to the outside and clog the middle of the ice with backchecking forwards.
Obviously the first two games will be difficult in that regard because the Pens will have last change. The 2nd period, with the long change will be especially hard. That means constant awareness by every player. The matchup in this series is very important. But, as the Sens have proven so far this year Sid can be shut down if everyone is on their game.
Stopping Sid from scoring is possible, but you still have to manage to score your own goals. Marc-Andre Fleury has proven over the last two years that he is an elite goalie come playoff time, so how do you beat him?
In order to prove my point, here's a goal map from Ottawa's 6-2 win over the Pens earlier this year:
This is a nice picture if you're Ottawa. It's also nothing new. And, once again, it's a very simple formula that is very hard to actually implement. The lesson? EVERYTHING goes to the net. Net presence is an absolute necessity. If you're going to score on Fleury with any consistency you need players driving the centre lane and stopping at the net. Three goals came from the hash marks down. The two outside goals were created by net presence disturbing Fleury by making him question his read. The net presence means Fleury has to respect the pass, and at times, especially if he gets rattled, he has a tendency to become over reactionary and pull off his post in anticipation. If the Sens think they can play a perimeter game against the Pens they will be sadly mistaken. Get to the net and get to the net hard. Make your presence known. And throw every puck on net or into the low slot. Oh, and avoid that glove hand. Eight inches blocker side or straight to the roof.
The unknowns, especially Malkin could be huge in this series. If the last game of the season was any indication, Malkin wants to come out fast and make his presence known. When Malkin gets in that mood you have to discourage it immediately. Hit him hard, hit him often, but hit him clean. Take away all of his space. Do this for a period and there's a good chance that Malkin effectively goes home for the night. But that's not the easiest task in the world. If it was, he wouldn't have won the Conn Smythe last year. This one has to fall squarely on the shoulders of big Andy Sutton. If he can catch Gino along the boards with a clean, hard hit, he could change the entire makeup of this series, and push Ottawa through to the second round.
If the Sens hope to succeed and make believers out of some so called hockey experts, this is how they have to do it.
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